Wednesday, June 18, 2008

Nikon D700 Full Frame Is Probably Coming. So, What Pentax Will Do?

See this post at the FM forum about some believed-to-be leaked images of a printed brochure of the upcoming Nikon D700 posted at a Chinese forum:-

http://www.fredmiranda.com/forum/topic/657828

It is shown that the D700 is actually quite ready to market and it is in Nikon's "FX" format, i.e., 135 Full Frame. If it is really true, the D700 is just a downsized advanced amateur version of the Nikon D3 and finally there is a real competitor to the Canon 5D in the lower priced full frame DSLR market, only almost after 3 years, very possibly.

It maybe very hard to believe when a "big boy" company like Nikon, who had told the world just about two years ago that they had full commitment and strong faith in an APS-C DSLR system but that they "suddenly" steered their wheels so quickly to go full frame with their top-of-the-line pro model and now with their most upper class advanced amateur model again.

Yet, now it just leaves alone Pentax, as the last old film SLR system maker, for now *just* having an APS-C DSLR system, of which this will just be intended to be marked as an entry level playground now or very soon by the big boys Canon and Nikon as well as the aggressive DSLR player Sony also.

Afterall, I think Pentax should really think very very seriously for how they should do to catch up in the game by launching a Full Frame DSLR of their own with a collection of usable FF lenses not too late. Otherwise, they will be circled (or they just circle themselves) in a market segment to compete with those low end and cheap P&S DSLR models of those C, N and S are offering in the near future. Eventually, they will possibly die in the game as they are now in the P&S DC market.

Moreover, considering that Pentax have almost discontined all their (mostly excellent) full frame FA autofocus lenses (unlike Canon and Nikon, both of them keep making and marketing their full frame lenses over recent years), the situation is actually rather adverse for Pentax. It is just not too optimistic for Pentax to be able to re-build a FF lens system in a short time so as to support a new FF DSLR body (even if there will be one), in order for them to compete and survive. (Ditto for the situation of Olympus, whom I bet eventually should be the first one to be (kicked) out of the game owing to a too small sized DSLR sensor format - which physically just can't compete in the high end battle field, but just to be marketed as a compact P&S DSLR system, owing to all those technical shortcomings and limitations that are well known.)

Read also my earlier article:-
The Current Pentax DSLR System As A System

8 Comments:

Anonymous said...

Rice..

Have you considered a career in American politics? You certainly twisting odd little facts around, spinning them, manipulating them so that they fit your malignant intentions.

Pentax will die, they are strictly a P&S manufacturer because they don't have a current FF DSLR offering? Hahahahaha! Are you serious? Is the D300 a P&S? How about the Canon 40D? Olympus E3? That latter is not even APS-C so does that relegate it to cell phone camera status? LOL!

Quick quizz -- what % of global DSLR unit sales are accounted for by FF? Greater than 3% or less than? Will it reach 5% within 3 years, or no? Maybe?

RiceHigh said...

You've mentioned very good examples indeed.

D300 will be replaced by the D700 very soon if this "rumour" is really true. Moreover, the D300 has never been as popular as its precedors D200 and D100 as what they did in gaining popularity and sales. Just think about it.

The 40D market has been eaten quite largely by the 450D very shortly after the 40D was born. In fact, Canon has being known very well about this when they created the 450. Well, think about it again.

As for the E-3, it has never been selling well as it was targeted. How many real pros outthere you can see are actually using a E-3? Frankly, if I have to choose between the E-3 and the K20D, I would still choose the K20D instead of the E-3 for *any* pro applications (but of course IF I *have to* choose just between the two). And, think more about it.

As for your quick quiz, I have another very similar question for you: What % of global DC unit sales are accounted for by DSLRs? Think think think about it!

All in all, it is very clear that those APS-C DSLRs have been labelled and will be labelled by the big two as entry level P&S DSLRs now and very soon. They will create such a clear market segment border/barrier so as to discriminate those minor players like Pentax and Olympus as low end ones with the intention to kill them one off (but in fact technically, it is really true that FF is superior). With the low price of those low end APS-C DSLRs, the profit margin will be very low just like what happens in the P&S DC market now. The only value of selling those low-profit DSLRs selling at cheap prices is to recruit new system users whom will move up to upper class DSLRs and will buy more lenses and accessories when they grow up. But then in the very near future, it can be foreseen that all the upper DSLRs they make will be *just* Full Frame.

So, afterall, who will buy a Pentax or Olympus self-acclaimed upper or even pro class DSLR when such a market environment and concept has been formed and defined??

Could you actually see the trend and simple but effective strategy taken by the big two here? If Pentax really also are lacking the necessary minimal foresight just like an average brand fanboy like you, I am sure they will die eventually in a few years.

Anonymous said...

Name calling is a nice touch.

Jaka said...

What exactly do you gain in these times with a FF camera? OK, better DOF control, wider angle (there are ultra wide lenses for APS-C), maybe more dynamic range (not in all cases) and that's about it.
Seriously, noise isn't an issue anymore.

So is all this really worth twice as much money? I think not. I rather shoot with a 1000€ camera and still get great shots than pay 2000€ and get the same effect (and maybe pay even more for my glass because the old glass can't handle the resolution of the new shiny FF sensor). I think I'm not the only one with this opinion.

BTW, the P&S classification made me laugh out loud.

Anonymous said...

OK Ricehigh, its time to lay your cards on the table. Who's paying you?

Anonymous said...

I don't get it Rice. By your own admission (and your posted photos testify to this...) you are not a real photographer by any stretch of the imagination. You are a mediocre snapshooter at best.

So why the obsession with Pentax's "alleged" shortcomings? (mostly all in your head). after all, it's not as if a better camera would make any difference in your results. so then why? why spend so much money on a dslr system? why waste so much negative emotion on something that is completely meaningless for a "photographer" of your abilities? why this blog? seriously.

how about focusing on improving your skills with any old digicam. then once your able to take a reasonable photo you can work your way up to a dslr and make good use of it. almost any modern dslr - pentax, nikon, oly, whatever will get you stunning results once you have reached a minimum skill level. give it a try! you might enjoy it

RiceHigh said...

> Jaka said...

> What exactly do you gain in these times with a FF camera? OK, better DOF control, wider angle (there are ultra wide lenses for APS-C), maybe more dynamic range (not in all cases) and that's about it.

More DoF control, more 3 dimensional effect, wide angle at a higher resolution and less purple fringing, more Dynamic Range *for sure* (it's Physics!) and..

> Seriously, noise isn't an issue anymore.

..less noise *for sure* again for the same sensor technology used.

> So is all this really worth twice as much money? I think not.

Yes, if the *best* results are desired.

> I rather shoot with a 1000€ camera and still get great shots than pay 2000€ and get the same effect (and maybe pay even more for my glass because the old glass can't handle the resolution of the new shiny FF sensor). I think I'm not the only one with this opinion.

Investing glass on an APS-C system *now* IMHO is very risky.

> BTW, the P&S classification made me laugh out loud.

It's not my classification, but my prediction. The intention and strategy of C and N are clear (and so as the trend as they can create and lead).

nikons about face said...

It should be quite clear to see that Nikons about face is de-facto proof that "obvious plans set in stone" are doomed to failure. The best plan is flexable and Pentax/Samsung still has some flexability so all is not "gloom and doom" as presented by you. You have and in the past never had ANY insight into Pentax's plans so who knows where they are planning on going next. From Nikon's examples words are meaningless in ever evolving markets. The push/pull between ff LARGE and APS SMALL and P&S EVEN SMALLER is a tough call.
Global markets and especially the Japanese love small compact electronics. FF "beasts" are a small niche. One swipe of an advance in sensor/electronic technologies and the whole enviroment changes and FF becomes the dinosaur. Not my prediction, but it could happen regardless of your Nostradamus sense of prediction..
But I'm so glad for your tabloid garbage. It brings humor to my day. Keep it up.

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