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Ricoh is falling since two years in a row, by now they lost one third of its 2016's DSLR share. And this decline is even in Japan which I thought was a traditional Pentax stronghold, with a share much above the world average. No other camera business segments compensate for that.
I'm not aware of anything new & exciting in pipeline for APS-C or FF. Neither DSLR nor mirrorless. Cloning Sigma lenses for which there's probably no serious demand in the typical Pentax user community, that has been the only recent acitivity.
I'm a bit worried about 2018. Either Ricoh management will have accept the risk of a miniscule world market share (like Sigma's DSLRs), with all consequences for profitability, or they'll decide pull the plug?
A new production of a compact FA* 85/1.4 would be exciting but not new. A mirrorless would be new but not exciting IMO.
Sigma lenses are just fine.
Third place in market share is still a respectable position, given the trouble through which the company and the whole market has gone.
Face it, the times of mass market for DSLRs (or even mirrorless) are over. The new mass market is the mobile phone and the action cam, possibly a combination of both. Bokeh calculated in-device by software. Look at Pictures that look as artificial as they are. Look at the Light L16 camera. That idea, combined with an action-capable smartphone, will capture the mass market.
Not me, however. I use my smartphone camera from time to time and I'm happy to have it. But I take my Pentax K-1 on any trip for which there is a remote possibility to take good pictures. Except the swimming pool, of course - there I take my Ricoh WG-M2.
Yes, I'm also thinking that the far future belongs to smartphone-like small cameras with lots (dozends) of small camera modules, from which the final picture will be calculated.
But the image quality of early "Light"-like cameras are so poor, that I think, we need 20 to 30 years until this will satisfy pros or semi-pro hobbyists. The computing part alone will require decades of intense research and not only "octa cores" of todays smartphones but over thousands of cores.
Our son's and daughters' will benefit from this mabye :) for us, it is not much more than a fun toy.
In the more concrete medium term, I think that full frame DSLR will decline at an acellerated speed, as Fuji has plans (allegedly) to bring out a medium format camera at the price of a full frame DSLR. I can imagine that those pro photographers currently so crazy about current top DSLR (like the Nikon D850) may jump ships towards Fuji MF then.
If Fuji sets a new camera class milestone in the "cheap" MF section, then other camera makes may want to jump on this trend.
Pentax MF will fade away (outdated technology by now and overpriced, nothing new in sight), but also Hasselblad will get a hard time to command their position.
APS-C (mirror or mirrorless) will remain popular as it gets most (advanced) photography for the money, at a quality which makes FF superfluous unless for bokeh geeks.
For DSLR, Sigma does contribute a lot with its 1.8 ART lenses for DX. The 50-100 1.8 will not be the last sensation from them.
For Fuji, they have their own excellent lenses and don't need to worry. People leave even FF in favor for Fuji X just because of the lenses.
Sony APS-C (A6x00) seems a bit behind with their lens choice, but could be remedied by future adapters (which are AF-C capable).
Actually, if Sigma brings out a better adapter for Sony (or introduces one for Fuji), that could become a game changer for either system.
Btw, I find it interesting that Micro-4/3 mirrorless does immensly well in Japan. Olympus seems on a good track. Maybe the ability to provide cameras which act as good video machines (Sony, Panasonic) will become a decisive factor for future success.
Pentax doesn't have to offer anything to compete in the beforementioned areas, and doesn't have the development funds to launch something great, so I'm afraid that Pentax will cease todays camera business (or be sold as a brand by Ricoh to a Chinese investor or something).
Sales of K1 can certainly suffer due to this rumor. As for now K1 is good enough. AF for static subjects seems to be more accurate than A7r III ! (www.optyczen.pl) You can open and change settings in menus and review pictures while buffer is clearing on K1 :-)
Thanks. It has also been my observation that the AF is kinda slow but for a reason, and that is precision. I prefer precision over speed when it comes to AF. Having said that, it would be nice to have a choice in some instances.
Logging you in...
Charles · 373 weeks ago
2016 Ricoh Imaging 6.7%
2017 Ricoh Imaging 4.8%
2018 Ricoh Imaging 4.2%
Ricoh is falling since two years in a row, by now they lost one third of its 2016's DSLR share.
And this decline is even in Japan which I thought was a traditional Pentax stronghold, with a share much above the world average.
No other camera business segments compensate for that.
I'm not aware of anything new & exciting in pipeline for APS-C or FF. Neither DSLR nor mirrorless.
Cloning Sigma lenses for which there's probably no serious demand in the typical Pentax user community, that has been the only recent acitivity.
I'm a bit worried about 2018. Either Ricoh management will have accept the risk of a miniscule world market share (like Sigma's DSLRs), with all consequences for profitability, or they'll decide pull the plug?
Chris · 373 weeks ago
A new production of a compact FA* 85/1.4 would be exciting but not new.
A mirrorless would be new but not exciting IMO.
Sigma lenses are just fine.
Third place in market share is still a respectable position, given the trouble through which the company and the whole market has gone.
Face it, the times of mass market for DSLRs (or even mirrorless) are over. The new mass market is the mobile phone and the action cam, possibly a combination of both. Bokeh calculated in-device by software. Look at Pictures that look as artificial as they are. Look at the Light L16 camera. That idea, combined with an action-capable smartphone, will capture the mass market.
Not me, however. I use my smartphone camera from time to time and I'm happy to have it. But I take my Pentax K-1 on any trip for which there is a remote possibility to take good pictures. Except the swimming pool, of course - there I take my Ricoh WG-M2.
Charles · 373 weeks ago
But the image quality of early "Light"-like cameras are so poor, that I think, we need 20 to 30 years until this will satisfy pros or semi-pro hobbyists. The computing part alone will require decades of intense research and not only "octa cores" of todays smartphones but over thousands of cores.
Our son's and daughters' will benefit from this mabye :) for us, it is not much more than a fun toy.
In the more concrete medium term, I think that full frame DSLR will decline at an acellerated speed, as Fuji has plans (allegedly) to bring out a medium format camera at the price of a full frame DSLR. I can imagine that those pro photographers currently so crazy about current top DSLR (like the Nikon D850) may jump ships towards Fuji MF then.
If Fuji sets a new camera class milestone in the "cheap" MF section, then other camera makes may want to jump on this trend.
Pentax MF will fade away (outdated technology by now and overpriced, nothing new in sight), but also Hasselblad will get a hard time to command their position.
APS-C (mirror or mirrorless) will remain popular as it gets most (advanced) photography for the money, at a quality which makes FF superfluous unless for bokeh geeks.
For DSLR, Sigma does contribute a lot with its 1.8 ART lenses for DX. The 50-100 1.8 will not be the last sensation from them.
For Fuji, they have their own excellent lenses and don't need to worry. People leave even FF in favor for Fuji X just because of the lenses.
Sony APS-C (A6x00) seems a bit behind with their lens choice, but could be remedied by future adapters (which are AF-C capable).
Actually, if Sigma brings out a better adapter for Sony (or introduces one for Fuji), that could become a game changer for either system.
Btw, I find it interesting that Micro-4/3 mirrorless does immensly well in Japan. Olympus seems on a good track.
Maybe the ability to provide cameras which act as good video machines (Sony, Panasonic) will become a decisive factor for future success.
Pentax doesn't have to offer anything to compete in the beforementioned areas, and doesn't have the development funds to launch something great, so I'm afraid that Pentax will cease todays camera business (or be sold as a brand by Ricoh to a Chinese investor or something).
That's my little outlook for the next 5 years ;)
RAH · 371 weeks ago
2015: 656993 pcs
2016: 397200 (~-40%; CIPA- average: ~-16%)
2017: 318390 (~-20%; CIPA- average: ~-8%)
This is looking grim indeed.
RiceHigh 110p · 371 weeks ago
Broken Enrgish · 373 weeks ago
RiceHigh 110p · 373 weeks ago
SLN · 372 weeks ago
Chris · 371 weeks ago
I prefer precision over speed when it comes to AF. Having said that, it would be nice to have a choice in some instances.